Question 1

How accurate is UWSA 1 for predicting Step 2 CK?

Accepted Answer

UWSA 1 is a useful mid-dedicated benchmark, but it is not an accurate scheduling tool for Step 2 CK. Community data consistently shows it overpredicts actual Step 2 CK scores by approximately 10–15 points — materially more than UWSA 2 (~5 pts). No peer-reviewed study has published formal R² or correlation data for UWSA 1 and Step 2 CK (unlike UWSA 2 for Step 1, which has Seal et al. 2020, Cureus, PMC7198101). Use UWSA 1 to identify knowledge gaps in Weeks 3–4 of dedicated study, not to judge your exam readiness.

Question 2

Why does UWSA 1 overpredict more than UWSA 2 for Step 2 CK?

Accepted Answer

Two factors explain most of the gap. First, UWSA 1's scoring curve is more generous than the actual Step 2 CK exam's curve — the same number of correct answers maps to a higher predicted score. Second, timing: UWSA 1 is typically taken 3–4 weeks before the exam, when preparation is still in progress. Practice test accuracy improves substantially as exam day approaches. A score taken weeks before the exam captures a student who is still improving, which mechanically inflates the prediction relative to the actual result. UWSA 2, taken in the final 7–10 days, avoids this timing artifact.

Question 3

By how much does UWSA 1 overpredict, and how should I adjust?

Accepted Answer

Community data places average overprediction at 10–15 points. A practical rule of thumb: subtract 10–12 points from your UWSA 1 predicted score for a conservative estimate. As a reference: the current Step 2 CK passing threshold is 218 (effective July 1, 2025, per USMLE.org). A UWSA 1 score of 235, adjusted down 12 points, puts your estimated actual score at approximately 223 — about 5 points above the passing threshold. That is a real safety margin, but a small one. If your adjusted score is not comfortably above 218, do not schedule based on UWSA 1 alone.

Question 4

When should I take UWSA 1 for Step 2 CK?

Accepted Answer

UWSA 1 is best taken during dedicated Weeks 3–4. At that stage, use it as a gap-identification tool: analyze which question categories you are losing the most points in, then spend the remaining dedicated weeks addressing those gaps. Take all 4 blocks in a single sitting to practice pacing. Do not treat the resulting score as a readiness verdict — UWSA 1's overprediction is largest when taken weeks before exam day.

Question 5

Can I use UWSA 1 to decide my exam date?

Accepted Answer

No. UWSA 1 alone is not a reliable scheduling signal for Step 2 CK. The recommended readiness protocol is: (1) take UWSA 1 in Weeks 3–4 to identify gaps, (2) address those gaps, (3) take NBME 13 or NBME 14 as a strict second benchmark — these are the most predictive NBME forms for Step 2 CK, (4) take UWSA 2 in the final 7–10 days as your primary scheduling signal. Only after UWSA 2 — adjusted for its ~5-point average overprediction — exceeds your target should you schedule.

Question 6

What is UWSA 3, and should I use it for Step 2 CK?

Accepted Answer

UWorld now offers a third self-assessment form for Step 2 CK (UWSA 3). It is available with a Step 2 CK subscription and is reported by the community to be harder than UWSA 1 and UWSA 2. However, as of this writing, no peer-reviewed study has published predictive validity data (R², mean overprediction, or regression slope) for UWSA 3 specifically. Without published accuracy data, UWSA 3 cannot be evaluated with the same confidence as UWSA 1 or UWSA 2. Use UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 as your primary self-assessments until peer-reviewed data for UWSA 3 becomes available.

	UWSA 1	UWSA 2
Avg. overprediction	~10–15 pts	~5 pts
Recommended timing	Week 3–4 of dedicated	Final 7–10 days
Primary use	Gap identification	Scheduling decision
Format	160q · 4 blocks	160q · 4 blocks
Data source	Community consensus	Community consensus

Wrong	Correct	% Correct	Predicted Score	Pass Prob
0	160	100%	292	99.9%
5	155	96.9%	287	99.9%
10	150	93.8%	282	99.9%
15	145	90.6%	276	99.9%
20	140	87.5%	271	99.9%
25	135	84.4%	266	99.9%
30	130	81.3%	261	99.9%
35	125	78.1%	255	99.9%
40	120	75%	250	99.7%
45	115	71.9%	245	99.2%
50	110	68.8%	240	98.1%
55	105	65.6%	234	94.7%
60	100	62.5%	229	87.9%
65	95	59.4%	224	74.6%
70	90	56.3%	219	54.5%
75	85	53.1%	213	28.9%
80	80	50%	208	14.2%
85	75	46.9%	203	6.3%
90	70	43.8%	198	2.7%
95	65	40.6%	192	0.9%
100	60	37.5%	187	0.4%
105	55	34.4%	182	0.2%
110	50	31.3%	177	0.1%
115	45	28.1%	171	0.1%
120	40	25%	166	0.1%
125	35	21.9%	161	0.1%
130	30	18.8%	156	0.1%
135	25	15.6%	150	0.1%
140	20	12.5%	145	0.1%
145	15	9.4%	140	0.1%
150	10	6.3%	140	0.1%
155	5	3.1%	140	0.1%
160	0	0%	140	0.1%

UWSA 1 Score CalculatorStep 2 CK Score Conversion & Overprediction Guide

UWSA 1 vs UWSA 2 — Step 2 CK Accuracy Comparison

UWSA 1 Score Conversion Table — Step 2 CK

About UWSA 1

Other Step 2 CK Practice Exams

UWSA 1 Step 2 CK Calculator — FAQ